Florida Venture Blog by Dan Rua dan

No-BS Venture Thoughts for No-BS Entrepreneurs.

A running perspective on Florida's growing tech and venture community, with an occasional detour to the Southeast/national scene, venture capital FAQs and maybe a gadget or two....

By Dan Rua, Managing Partner of Inflexion Partners -- "Florida's Venture Fund".

Where is Jason Calacanis's Disclosure, to People AND Machines?

It's a good thing February 29th doesn't come around that often. It's a day Jason Calacanis may want to sweep under a rug.

After yet another episode of Jason jumping up and down for the world to notice him and his company (this time with some affiliate marketer rants and techmeme coverage), a Feb 29 post by Allen Stern over at Center Networks focused on Jason's conflicted, undisclosed PageRank-passing link practices and his promotion of such practices to the rest of his employees. Jason's practices were particularly ironic given he just highlighted the FTC quote: "We wanted to make clear . . . if you're being paid, you should disclose that."

You can read Allen's direct affiliate, employee, paid link comparisons. My post just provides a bit more detail to Allen's dead-on observation. My post isn't about affiliate links. My post isn't about buzz marketing. My post isn't about Mahalo's business model (human scraping is worthy of a whole other post). It's simply about applying Google's standard for machine-readable disclosure to Jason's PageRank-passing links. In fact, it's even more narrow than all of Jason's violations (Andy Beard covers some others) -- I'll just focus on his deliberate PageRank juicing of Mahalo already alluded to by Allen. No rocket science here.

Google's standard:
1) Google's position on disclosure, via Matt Cutts, is that adequate disclosure on the web must be understood by people AND understood by machines. [next 3 images are directly from Cutts presentation]
2) Google has suggested a few ways to meet their standard of machine-readable disclosure; the most straightforward being the use of rel="nofollow".
3) Google has exacted severe penalties against sites failing to provide machine-readable disclosure.
Jason's PageRank-passing:
4) Jason Calacanis gets paid direct cash compensation from Mahalo, and significant equity compensation from Mahalo as a shareholder. [next 3 images are directly from calacanis.com posts]
5) More Mahalo pages in Google SERPs equals more money in Jason's pocket and equity -- orders of magnitude more than the typical affiliate or sponsored blogger that Jason has railed against in the past.
6) To get more Mahalo pages in Google SERPs, and higher in Google SERPs, Jason repeatedly creates PageRank-passing links to Mahalo, with SEO keywords stuffed into anchor text. One or more links are a daily occurrence, with many linkfarm-in-a-post posts.
7) None of Jason's PageRank-passing links provide machine-readable disclosure as required by Google (or human-readable for that matter) -- even though using nofollow would still retain any traffic/branding goals of linking.
The result:
8) Jason's undisclosed PageRank-passing links are working. Pages that no one has found interesting enough to link, reach Google #1 SERPs because of Jason's single PR6 keyword-stuffed link. See this Google SERP and this backlink check as just one example of many.
9) Neither the linker (Calacanis.com, PR6) nor his sponsor (Mahalo.com, PR6), have received any penalties as a result of these clear Google Guideline violations. There are times when I've heard Google say they focus on the most egregious examples, but I can't think of a blogger with more compensation at stake, doing more blatant, conflicted PageRank-passing without machine-readable disclosure.

Google, what are Allen and I missing?

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Where's Dan Now? #3

Well, just like WDN #1, you folks solved WDN #2 faster than I expected. Given the long time gap between those, I thought I'd toss you another one I snapped this morning. Where is this Papa John's commercial being shot? I gave plenty away in the picture so I need the exact address.

UPDATE, 02-29-08: Congrats to Brian who nailed it (I shoulda blurred the Cantina). Thanks for playing along!

As usual, I've created a pushpin on my WDN map AND I was able to solve embed this time. Enjoy!

View Larger Map

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GOOG Will Die an Open Death

I've been digging into open search, playing around with Hadoop, Nutch, Wikia Search and other efforts. I don't think it's close to supplanting GOOG, but it will eventually. It will start with better results and/or better display of results -- particularly to niche/long-tail needs. The key will be when someone applies a sustainable revenue model to Open Search in a manner that allows distribution channels to get off the GOOG candy.

The fight hasn't been about search quality for some time. It's been about buying distribution. However, there have only been a few players with search quality high enough to test distribution models. When Open Search allows anyone to match search quality/display, then creative monetization models will emerge -- unlocking distribution in the process.

Yahoo's recent "An Open Approach to Search" post was nice to see, but it's just the tip of the iceberg...

Related images: yahoo, google, hadoop, nutch, wikia search, open search

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Where's Dan Now? #2


As I shared in my first Where's Dan Now? post, I'm on the road a lot. Today's pic is very different than last time. Can you be the first to name this location within 1 block (e.g. address, google map etc) via comment?

Enjoy!

UPDATE, 02-27-08: Congrats to Kris for guessing my Tampa, FL location -- looking out from the downtown Bank of America. I've added this WDN #2 to my GOOG map. Am I missing something or does GOOG still not have YouTube-ease cut/paste for embedding MyMaps? It looks like they require you to get a Maps key and write your own embed code. I must be missing something...

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Stage6 Killed so DivX Could Thrive?

Well, no sooner did I tout the growth and value of HD streaming site Stage6.com and they decide to close up shop. It could be my rationalization, but it sounds like they were a victim of their own success. According to some sources the combination of traffic, copyright policing and board greed (nixing a spin-out funding deal), led to a decision to shut Stage6.com down. I'm guessing deal negotiations also broke down when new investors wanted reps & warranties about copyright liability.

On the surface, shutting such a property down doesn't make much sense...someone is probably too busy with the DivX-inside business model to mold the right Stage6 deal (including all the copyright complexity). But, sometimes such focus makes perfect sense...[UPDATE: especially if the core team is gone]

Jordan, I'm still interested in talking if you are...I'm guessing you've got something interesting in the worx...

UPDATE: TechCrunch provides a blow-by-blow on the Stage6 drama. As an early investor in DivX along with Frank Creer and others, I sure hope it wasn't as bad as it sounds. There is still a lot of value in that property...

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Bobby G: Adventure Capitalist...er Business and Asset Consolidator

I've seen people make money in a lot of ways in this world. The MOJO show Bobby G: Adventure Capitalist reminded me of that fact. I thought I was going to see a show about venture capital, but that's not quite what was on the screen. Upon further research, the show website shares that Bobby's company is a Business and Asset Consolidator.
Now I don't know Florida-based Bobby Genovese (although I think Barbados is the legal home of his business), but I have to hand it to the guy. Somehow he convinced MOJO to run a venture capital reality show about him and his company, BG Capital; with the following portfolio:
  1. The Neptune Society: a pre-funded cremation service
  2. Clearly Canadian: OTC stock, enhanced water company
  3. Neptune Memorial Reef: a manmade reef off the coast of Key Biscayne, with the following benefits/uses:
    • A memorial garden for the cremated remains of our dearly departed.
    • The world's largest and most enchanting man-made reef.
    • An environmental and ecological masterpiece.
    • A world-class destination for divers and explorers.
    • A place for commemorating mankind's accomplishments.
He seems like a pretty personable guy and he definitely knows how to live the high life. If you haven't seen his show, give it a look. It's no Rockstartup, but it will get your head out of Web 2.0 and remind you that there are diverse people and businesses making money out there...

UPDATE: I checked Bobby's company site (rather than the TV series site) and found some additional portfolio companies. For example, he's backed the Vancouver International Polo Team. It sounds like he's quite the polo player:
"Even more remarkable is the talent of Genovese himself. Although an accomplished equestrian, he wasn't introduced to the sport until 1995 when he took his first lesson. Much to the surprise and delight of both teacher and student, Genovese proved to be a natural."

Related images: bobby genovese

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RankSpank Makes Me Laugh...What's Your RealRank?

As a VC you get to live vicariously through your portfolio companies. Sometimes that is exhilarating, other times it is frustrating, and quite often it's just plain funny. This morning, I'm laughing.

Given some of GOOGopoly's moves in late 2007, more and more bloggers and advertisers are realizing that PageRank has no direct correlation to traffic and pageviews. A link-savvy PR5 site can have ~100 visitors and plenty of PR0 sites have thousands of visitors. Alexa tries to improve on this with sampling estimates for traffic, but it's common knowledge that sampling errors and gaming drive a wedge between Alexa stats and reality.

Being in the social media marketing business, IZEA saw this as a problem and an opportunity. The result was RealRank, an open ranking system based upon real visitors, pageviews and active links (e.g. links that actually refer people rather than hidden on footers etc.). IZEARanks.com was launched with RealRank tools and reporting. So, how do you let the world know when you've got a better mousetrap? Well, one way is the town crier of our time: funny videos.



Kudos to Veronique, Ashley, Travis, Scott, and even champagne bubbles Ted, for a very professional music video. Keep them coming and keep having fun...

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WeMedia, BarCamp and FoWA: Big Month in Miami

Miami's social media scene continues to grow. Next week is one of the bigger weeks in awhile, with three great conferences.

Feb 26-28: WeMedia
Location: The conference is conducted at the University of Miami, located in Coral Gables, south of Miami International Airport and southwest of downtown Miami. US 1, or Dixie Highway, bisects Coral Gables and is a good pathway to the University.
Schedule

Feb 28: BarCamp Miami
Location: Carnival Center, 1300 Biscayne Blvd, Miami, FL 33132
Schedule

Feb 29-Mar 1: Future of Web Apps
Location: Carnival Centre, 1300 Biscayne Boulevard Miami, Florida 33132 USA
Schedule
Confirmed speakers include: Kevin Rose, Kathy Sierra, Cal Henderson, Erick Schonfeld, Kevin Marks, Matt Mullenweg, Blaine Cook, Leah Culver, Emily Boyd, Kevin Hale, Dan Rubin, Gary Vaynerchuk, Joseph Smarr, and the ScrapBlog crew


Related images: miami, wemedia, barcamp, fowa, kevin rose, kathy sierra, cal henderson, erick schonfeld, kevin marks, matt mullenweg, blaine cook, leah culver, emily boyd, kevin hale, dan rubin, gary vaynerchuk, joseph smarr, scrapblog

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Nice Idea, but How Will You Get Visitors?

I had another conversation today with an entrepreneur who had an interesting online destination site idea, but few answers for attracting visitors. In general, I'm not nearly as excited about destination/media properties as I am about horizontal online services. However, a well executed destination site can still make an interesting business.

The only problem is that the same pitches are happening today that happen in the late '90s -- focused on the big target/niche market and the interesting site functionality; with little discussion of how people will find out about the site and why they will visit. Responding to such questions with a reiteration of site function isn't sufficient, at least not for institutional capital.

A few of the tactical approaches for getting traffic to a destination are:
1) organic search
2) sponsored search
3) viral adoption
4) referral tools
5) affiliate marketing
6) display advertising
7) distribution relationships.
But, it's not enough to just reference this list or a subset. Entrepreneurs need to explain how their niche or target audience is uniquely accessible through one or more of these methods. I'd also recommend doing some small tests with one or more of these so you can speak from real data/ROI. It doesn't matter if you have the neatest idea with the best supplier relationships -- you need visitors or you die.

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Stage6 Explodes Onto the Video Scene (HD Video: House of Flying Daggers)

HD video sharing site Stage6.com has had an impressive first few months. Alexa and Compete graphs tell the same story -- explosive growth.

stage6
stage6

HD makes everything look better, but I wonder how user-generated videos will fare as viewer expectations rise. At least I get to share one of my favorite cinematographic efforts, without YouTube destroying the image quality:

House of Flying Daggers (Shi mian mai fu)





One drawback for users is that the DivX player is required (Stage6 is currently a DivX property). Given the difference in quality, I don't think that will hinder viewer adoption. In fact, as an early investor in DivX, I love the adoption this will drive.

Jordan, if you're taking on investors in the Stage6 entity, give me a buzz...

UPDATE, 02-26-08: From exploding to imploding...I guess my message to Jordan didn't reach him in time...Stage6 will be sorely missed and opens a window of opportunity for others...

Related images: stage6, divx, house of flying daggers, jordan greenhall

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Yes We Can, Sell the Sizzle

steakThere are a few sayings in marketing, sales and fundraising that involve "Sizzle" and "Steak". The most common is to "Sell the Sizzle, not the Steak". At other times, a hard-nosed operator might be referred to as "All Steak, not much Sizzle".

A few ways to think about Sizzle and Steak are:
1) Sizzle = heart, Steak = mind
2) Sizzle = benefits, Steak = features
3) Sizzle = marketing, Steak = value
However, you define them, the general idea is that you can sell things on promise or substance. Hopefully, your company/products can deliver both.

This isn't a political blog and, with independent/libertarian leanings, I haven't chosen a horse in this presidential race. However, I ran across an example today of selling the Sizzle in the presidential race. I have no idea if the Steak is filet mignon or ground beef, but no one seems to match Barack Obama's current Sizzle.

Will.i.am was inspired by Obama's "Yes We Can" speech and turned it into a music video full of Sizzle (and celebrities). I've embedded it here. So...will Sizzle be enough to sell the American people?



Related images: sizzle steak, barack obama, obama, will.i.am, yes we can, yeswecan, yes we can video

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Mako Surgical Files for $68M IPO

Ft Lauderdale-based Mako Surgical filed for a 5.1 million share public offering, with a price target of $14-16/share. Mako is led by Maurice Ferre and has a revolutionary approach to knee restoration -- utilizing robot guidance for more precise operations, enabling quicker recovery and, ultimately, better outcomes.



I really liked Maurice and his company when we first saw it, but we didn't pull the trigger alongside Tony Natale (formerly MDS, now at Prism). Mako proceeded to raise $50M of private equity and a fast path to the big show. Congrats to Maurice, Tony and the whole Mako team!

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Barstool Economics: Taxes Made Simple

taxesI'm sure many of you have run across this simplified tax analogy before, but it was new to me. Although it's not a perfect match to our system magnitude-wise, the core of the example rings true -- in very simple terms. The author of this piece remains a mystery, but that's kind of irrelevant...to me at least.
How Taxes Work . . .

This is a VERY simple way to understand the tax laws. Read on — it does make you think!!

Let's put tax cuts in terms everyone can understand. Suppose that every day, ten men go out for dinner. The bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men — the poorest — would pay nothing; the fifth would pay $1, the sixth would pay $3, the seventh $7, the eighth $12, the ninth $18, and the tenth man — the richest — would pay $59.

That's what they decided to do. The ten men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement — until one day, the owner threw them a curve (in tax language a tax cut).

"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20." So now dinner for the ten only cost $80.00.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still eat for free. But what about the other six — the paying customers? How could they divvy up the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share?"

The six men realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would end up being PAID to eat their meal. So the restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so the fifth man paid nothing, the sixth pitched in $2, the seventh paid $5, the eighth paid $9, the ninth paid $12, leaving the tenth man with a bill of $52 instead of his earlier $59. Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to eat for free.

But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings. "I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man who pointed to the tenth. "But he got $7!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man, "I only saved a dollar, too . . . It's unfair that he got seven times more than me!".

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man, "why should he get $7 back when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night he didn't show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered, a little late what was very important. They were FIFTY-TWO DOLLARS short of paying the bill! Imagine that!

I also found this comment interesting on another blog discussing Barstool Economics:
Another interesting mathematical fact is how the share of the bill increased for the top "payers" even though they received a greater total discount.

the percentage of the bill for each "payer" at the $100 bill and the $80 bill.

1 - 00.0% 00.0%
2 - 00.0% 00.0%
3 - 00.0% 00.0%
4 - 00.0% 00.0%
5 - 01.0% 00.0%
6 - 03.0% 02.5%
7 - 07.0% 06.3%
8 - 12.0% 11.3%
9 - 18.0% 17.5%
10- 59.0% 61.3%"

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Why GOOGopoly Cannot Buy Yahoo!, Even if They Try to Annoy Microsoft Anyway

Microsoft announced today a bid to buy Yahoo! for $44.6 billion. First, let me say "wow, that's a big number and this deal, if completed, will have big consequences." Steve Ballmer extended the offer by phone to CEO Yang and sent the following letter to the YHOO board:

January 31, 2008

Board of Directors
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089
Attention: Roy Bostock, Chairman
Attention: Jerry Yang, Chief Executive Officer

Dear Members of the Board:

I am writing on behalf of the Board of Directors of Microsoft to make a proposal for a business combination of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Under our proposal, Microsoft would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 based on Microsoft’s closing share price on January 31, 2008, payable in the form of $31 in cash or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock. Microsoft would provide each Yahoo! shareholder with the ability to choose whether to receive the consideration in cash or Microsoft common stock, subject to pro-ration so that in the aggregate one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be exchanged for shares of Microsoft common stock and one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be converted into the right to receive cash. Our proposal is not subject to any financing condition.

Our proposal represents a 62% premium above the closing price of Yahoo! common stock of $19.18 on January 31, 2008. The implied premium for the operating assets of the company clearly is considerably greater when adjusted for the minority, non-controlled assets and cash. By whatever financial measure you use - EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, net income, or analyst target prices - this proposal represents a compelling value realization event for your shareholders.

We believe that Microsoft common stock represents a very attractive investment opportunity for Yahoo!’s shareholders. Microsoft has generated revenue growth of 15%, earnings growth of 26%, and a return on equity of 35% on average for the last three years. Microsoft’s share price has generated shareholder returns of 8% during the last one year period and 28% during the last three year period, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. It is our view that Microsoft has significant potential upside given the continued solid growth in our core businesses, the recent launch of Windows Vista, and other strategic initiatives.

Microsoft’s consistent belief has been that the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! clearly represents the best way to deliver maximum value to our respective shareholders, as well as create a more efficient and competitive company that would provide greater value and service to our customers. In late 2006 and early 2007, we jointly explored a broad range of ways in which our two companies might work together. These discussions were based on a vision that the online businesses of Microsoft and Yahoo! should be aligned in some way to create a more effective competitor in the online marketplace. We discussed a number of alternatives ranging from commercial partnerships to a merger proposal, which you rejected. While a commercial partnership may have made sense at one time, Microsoft believes that the only alternative now is the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! that we are proposing.

In February 2007, I received a letter from your Chairman indicating the view of the Yahoo! Board that “now is not the right time from the perspective of our shareholders to enter into discussions regarding an acquisition transaction.” According to that letter, the principal reason for this view was the Yahoo! Board’s confidence in the “potential upside” if management successfully executed on a reformulated strategy based on certain operational initiatives, such as Project Panama, and a significant organizational realignment. A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved.

While online advertising growth continues, there are significant benefits of scale in advertising platform economics, in capital costs for search index build-out, and in research and development, making this a time of industry consolidation and convergence. Today, the market is increasingly dominated by one player who is consolidating its dominance through acquisition. Together, Microsoft and Yahoo! can offer a credible alternative for consumers, advertisers, and publishers. Synergies of this combination fall into four areas:

Scale economics: This combination enables synergies related to scale economics of the advertising platform where today there is only one competitor at scale. This includes synergies across both search and non-search related advertising that will strengthen the value proposition to both advertisers and publishers. Additionally, the combination allows us to consolidate capital spending.

Expanded R&D capacity: The combined talent of our engineering resources can be focused on R&D priorities such as a single search index and single advertising platform. Together we can unleash new levels of innovation, delivering enhanced user experiences, breakthroughs in search, and new advertising platform capabilities. Many of these breakthroughs are a function of an engineering scale that today neither of our companies has on its own.

Operational efficiencies: Eliminating redundant infrastructure and duplicative operating costs will improve the financial performance of the combined entity.

Emerging user experiences: Our combined ability to focus engineering resources that drive innovation in emerging scenarios such as video, mobile services, online commerce, social media, and social platforms is greatly enhanced.

We would value the opportunity to further discuss with you how to optimize the integration of our respective businesses to create a leading global technology company with exceptional display and search advertising capabilities. You should also be aware that we intend to offer significant retention packages to your engineers, key leaders and employees across all disciplines.

We have dedicated considerable time and resources to an analysis of a potential transaction and are confident that the combination will receive all necessary regulatory approvals. We look forward to discussing this with you, and both our internal legal team and outside counsel are available to meet with your counsel at their earliest convenience.

Our proposal is subject to the negotiation of a definitive merger agreement and our having the opportunity to conduct certain limited and confirmatory due diligence. In addition, because a portion of the aggregate merger consideration would consist of Microsoft common stock, we would provide Yahoo! the opportunity to conduct appropriate limited due diligence with respect to Microsoft. We are prepared to deliver a draft merger agreement to you and begin discussions immediately.

In light of the significance of this proposal to your shareholders and ours, as well as the potential for selective disclosures, our intention is to publicly release the text of this letter tomorrow morning.

Due to the importance of these discussions and the value represented by our proposal, we expect the Yahoo! Board to engage in a full review of our proposal. My leadership team and I would be happy to make ourselves available to meet with you and your Board at your earliest convenience. Depending on the nature of your response, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!’s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal.

We believe this proposal represents a unique opportunity to create significant value for Yahoo!’s shareholders and employees, and the combined company will be better positioned to provide an enhanced value proposition to users and advertisers. We hope that you and your Board share our enthusiasm, and we look forward to a prompt and favorable reply.

Sincerely yours,

/s/ Steven A. Ballmer

Steven A. Ballmer

Chief Executive Officer

Microsoft Corporation

There is plenty of speculation about how GOOG might react. I think the bigger question is whether YHOO will take the offer, but GOOG could still be an annoyance. MSFT and GOOG have been here before, on small deals and on big ones like DoubleClick. However, this one is different.

You see, GOOG currently dominates the market of Search Advertising (direct & indirect) -- already confirmed by the FTC during their DoubleClick review, when they found:
"Google, through its AdWords business, is the dominant provider of sponsored search advertising"
DoubleClick got through because the FTC's review largely focused on Privacy and because DoubleClick didn't add to GOOG's monopoly in Search Advertising. YHOO, on the other hand, would be an acquisition of their largest competitor for Search Advertising (direct); on the heels of manual, targeted anticompetitive actions against Search Advertising (indirect) competitors like TextLinkAds (how, again, is a search for "text-link-ads" more relevant with www.text-link-ads.com removed from the top spot and replaced with TLA competitors?)

GOOG may throw some head-fakes internally or externally to complicate the deal, but they cannot buy YHOO. In fact, their time would be better spent educating their entire organization about the risks created and opportunities foreclosed by anticompetitive behavior. Even if the YHOO shareholders take the 60% premium being offered for their shares, GOOGopoly will still be the dominant provider of Search Advertising. That means power, and consequences -- just ask Microsoft...

Related posts:
http://searchengineland.com/
http://www.lockergnome.com/
http://bhandler.spaces.live.com/
http://blogs.zdnet.com/
http://www.techboggle.com/
http://avc.blogs.com/
http://www.floozyspeak.com/
http://www.techcrunch.com/

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